📉 GDP Goes Negative
The US economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 2025—the worst performance since 2022—as President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies triggered import surges and business uncertainty . Key drivers:
- Import spike: Businesses rushed to stockpile goods before tariffs hit, widening the trade deficit to a record $162B .
- Consumer pullback: Spending growth slowed to 1.8% amid inflation fears .
- Government cuts: Federal spending dropped 5.1%, exacerbating the decline .
🛑 Industry Whiplash
Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods and 10% global baseline tariff caused chaos:
- Port of Los Angeles reported a 35% drop in Chinese shipments, with retailers warning of empty shelves by summer .
- Toymakers like Basic Fun paused shipments, anticipating price hikes .
- CEOs from Walmart to Target privately warned Trump of supply chain disruptions .
💡 My Take:
While the White House spins this as “short-term pain for long-term gain,” the data tells a darker story. The Fed’s Atlanta branch projected a 2.7% GDP collapse—worse than COVID-era lows . With consumer sentiment at 1990s recession levels , Trump’s gamble risks becoming a self-inflicted crisis.
🔮 What’s Next?
- Recession risk: Apollo Global Management puts odds at 90% if tariffs persist .
- Political fallout: Trump’s approval on the economy plummeted to 39% .
- Global backlash: China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs could deepen the slump .
