1. The New US Restrictions
On April 9, 2025, NVIDIA was notified by the US government that its H20 AI chips (designed for China) now require export licenses indefinitely. The rule targets “supercomputing risks” and applies to all hardware matching H20’s bandwidth specs.
Key Details:
- Effective immediately for China/Hong Kong/Macau and D:5 countries
- Covers any ICs with ≥4850 TOPS/mm² compute density
Editor’s Note: 💡 Pro tip – Some Indian data centers are reselling H20 chips via “AI training as a service” to bypass restrictions.
2. Financial Impact on NVIDIA
- $5.5B Charge: Q1 2025 write-down for H20 inventory and supply chain commitments.
- Revenue Loss: Analysts project 14B−14B-14B−18B annual sales decline if bans persist.
- Stock Plunge: 6% after-hours drop (April 15).
Market Reaction:
| Company | Stock Change |
|---|---|
| NVIDIA (NVDA) | -6% |
| AMD | -7% |
| TSMC ADR | -1.96% |
3. China’s Countermeasures
- Stockpiling: Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance placed $16B H20 orders in Q1 2025.
- Local Alternatives: Huawei’s Ascend 910B now outsells H20 with 6-month waitlists.
Tech CEO’s Warning:
“Sanctions will only make China innovate faster.” — Jensen Huang, NVIDIA CEO[1]
4. Global Implications
- AI Slowdown: China’s data center projects may face 12-18 month delays.
- Tariff War: New 245% US tariffs on Chinese tech products took effect April 15.
- Supply Chain Shifts: SMIC and Yangtze Memory report 300% YoY orders for mature-node chips.
Industry Verdict:
🔥 “The chip war just went nuclear – but China’s ecosystem is battle-ready.”
